Raising awareness of both existing and emerging foreign and security policy challenges facing the European Union, EUISS Briefsprovide key information in a concise, focused format.
This Brief examines the oil-conflict nexus and analyses the effects of the recent pandemic-induced oil price shock on three vulnerable, conflict-affected countries.
The second in our series of Foresight Briefs shows how the function of strategic foresight has not been conceptualised in China to the same degree as in the West. However, the notions of disruptive ‘black swan’ and ‘grey rhino’ events have gained currency among Chinese analysts...
The use of digital technologies in intra-state conflicts has become more frequent. This Brief sheds light on some of the risks associated with their use and how these can negatively impact mediation or negotiation efforts in civil conflicts, and examines how peacemakers might...
Early warning systems (EWS) are at the heart of conflict prevention strategies. This Brief argues that the gap between early warning and early action persists because of challenges in transforming early warning policy recommendations into early response.
This Brief explores Armenia’s Russia policy after the 2018 Velvet Revolution in the light of the country’s defeat in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war, resulting in a larger regional role for Turkey, which has exacerbated Armenia’s security dilemma.
Foresight plays an important role in defence planning and is an essential part of Russian military science. Despite some similarities to Western perspectives, there are distinctive aspects to Russian foresight thinking, which places particular emphasis on geopolitical and...
The outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic has heightened fears about the EU’s trade, resources and technology dependencies. This Brief outlines the challenges facing the Union’s supply security and explores how any EU trade diversification strategy needs to tackle three core risk...
Despite routine declarations that connect Sahelian terrorism to climatic and environmental factors, available scientific evidence does not allow us to conclude whether (and what) climatic factors impact (and how) conflict variability and terrorism. This Brief explores why.
Policy experts and decision-makers can improve their ability to think about the future in a number of ways, including by admitting that future developments may invalidate current assumptions and actions. This Brief shows how applying the discipline of strategic foresight to the...
